Weekly Trading Strategy : 12-10-2009

View :
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
The world floods with money from US, Eur, China.
Hot money double long HK market;
China's hot money starts pouring it. very bullish to HK Real Estate market short term.
Expectation (Deflation -> Inflation) : Gold hits USD2,000 in 2011

Risk
Import/Export Re-balance
China has no trade surplus
=> China does buy US Treasury Bill
=> US Interest Rate ^
=> Asset Price Down

Strategy
2009 : panic market -> focus on Beta.
2010 : normal market -> focus on Alpha.
Long H-share, gold and commodity, Short USD/HKD.
Speculate hot money target. Hong Kong real estate market.
Treynor-Black Model (anchor 2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing
Avoid over-capacity industry.

Trade Strategy
Hold : For year 2009
HSI 23,000 -> 5% cash
HSI 24,000 -> 20% cash

Focus
83 : 信和 for its focus on luxury apartment and its land reserves.
868 :commodity for auto industry (Industry over capacity).
2009/09/27 Chairman buy back at $5.03
2899, 1818 :explosion of Gold price in 2010 when inflation comes.
272 : P/B @1.2 vs industrial avg 2.0+
2318 : huge growth potential.
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.
2837 : Taiwan stock market from China's policy.