Weekly Trading Strategy : 27-10-2009

View :
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
The world floods with money from US, Eur, China. => Hot money double long HK market;
China's hot money starts pouring it. very bullish to HK Real Estate market short term.
Expectation (Deflation -> Inflation) : Gold hits USD2,000 in 2011
USD is fading away : USD is long way down !
Hong Kong will be "Londonized" in 3 years time.

New
Labor force of China is up again => Export UP => Import UP => (Shipping)

Investment Focus
Item Asset Time (mth)
1 Shipping (6m)
2 Real Estate (6m)
3 Gold (60m)
4 China (60m)
5 Insurance (24m)
* Airline (3m)

Strategy
2009 : panic market -> focus on Beta.
2010 : normal market -> focus on Alpha.
Long H-share, gold and commodity, Short USD/HKD.
Speculate hot money target. Hong Kong real estate market.
Treynor-Black Model (anchor 2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing
Avoid over-capacity industry.

Trade Strategy
Hold : For year 2009
HSI 23,000 -> 5% cash
HSI 24,000 -> 20% cash

Focus
83 : 信和 for its luxury apartment and its land reserves. Hong Kong will be "Londonized"
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.
868 : cyclical commodity for auto industry. (2009/09/27 Chairman buy back at $5.03)
2899, 1818 :explosion of Gold price in 2010 when inflation comes.
272 : P/B @1.2 vs industrial avg 2.0+
2318 : huge growth potential. (Grow at 37%)
2837 : Taiwan stock market from China's policy.
2828 : As anchor of the portfolio
2823 : speculate for rebound