Weekly Trading Strategy : 2-11-2009

Long-term View :
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
USD is fading away in the next 5 year.. Gold hits USD2,000 in 2011
Hot money double long HK market; Hong Kong will be "Londonized" in 3 years time.

Weekly Review and Comments
China export will be up 15%-20% in Q4
China's Economy i s stabilized for steady growth in the coming 3 years. Insurance sector is in good shape as China's income/person is more than USD 3,000 and middle class population grows. Further, China's policy and interest rate trend are favor to Insurance sector.

Weekly Trading Plan
LONG
2831 Russia ETF : Disounct 5%
2318中國平安
SHORT
2837 台灣ETF

Portfolio Strategy
2009 : panic market -> focus on Beta.
2010 : normal market -> focus on Alpha.
Long H-share, gold and commodity, Short USD/HKD.
Treynor-Black Model (anchor 2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing
Stay away over-capacity industry.

Focus
HSI 23,000 -> 5% cash
HSI 24,000 -> 20% cash
Speculate
83 : 信和 for its focus on luxury sector and its land reserves. Company buy back
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.
2823 : speculate A-Share rebound Vs H-Share
Core Holding
868 : cyclical commodity for auto industry. (2009/09/27 Chairman buy back at $5.03)
2899, 1818 :explosion of Gold price in 2010 when inflation comes.
272 : P/B @1.2 vs industrial avg 2.0+ Boss buy 4.6M shares at $5.00 Oct 2009.
2318 : huge growth potential. (Grow at 37%, PEG = 0.34)
SHORT
2837 : Taiwan stock market from China's policy.