Weekly Trading Plan
Leverage by using market indexes (=>3X)
Long index and roll-over with gains.
Keep an eye on 劉央's buy list of China Small Cap
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Weekly Trading Strategy : 23-11-2009
Long-term View :
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
USD is fading away in the next decade.. Gold hits USD2,000 in 2011
Hot money triple LONG HK markets(FX, Stock, Real Estate)
陶冬's Interesting Views
Central banks is trying to save the economies by massive printing
money with zero interest rate. The supply could be high but
the demand is low. Result :
Govn'ts ----> Banks --X--> Industries ---X----> Consumers
-----> Assest Investment (UP)
-----> Commodities (UP)
China has no intention to let CYN raise, as it hurts the exports and
economies on the whole. However,
When China's internal consuming is UP
Then CYN will be UP fast (Time for a kill) !!
Else ....... China wants stable FX.
Book Review
Can indivdual investors beat well-equiped fund managers ? The
book "Security Analysis" says so :
1. Fund Manager's priority
Fund managers' priority is job safety! it is better to be in the herd
(even to lose money). If it works out, fund manger claims the credit,
it not, it is the markets' fault.
2. Fund' Mandates
Fubd's mandates may work against Fund Managers' will. Including
the maximum weighting for any stock, and the mini/max amount
of cash allowed.
3. Statistical figures
On average, only 15% of fund managers beats the benchmark after
management fees are deduced. Further, winners do not last for
long. In other words, statistic suggests that those super fund mangers
are simply lucky guys of the year. (Guess Peter Lunch and Warren
Buffett are exception!).
Weekly Trading Plan
Raising cheap fund (mortgage) for carry trade.
Double long Hong Kong markets(stock and real estate)
Leverage by using market indexes (=>3X)
Long index and roll-over with gains.
Keep an eye on 劉央's buy list of China Small Cap
Investing Strategy
2009 : panic market -> focus on Beta.
2010 : normal market -> focus on Alpha.
Long H-share, gold and commodity, Short USD/HKD.
Treynor-Black Model (anchor 2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing
Stay away from China over-capacity industries.
Focus
HSI 23,000 -> 5% cash
HSI 24,000 -> 20% cash
Speculate
83 : 信和 for its land reserves. Company buy back
670 : speculate business boom for the coming events in shanghai.
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.
2829 : H-share (Financail Industry)
587 : Est PE = 4.9 Medical for female
1387 : Est PE = 6.9 underground shopping mall
Core Holding
2828 : portfolio benchmark
868 : cyclical commodity. (2009/09/27 Chairman buy at $5.03)
2899, 1818 : embrace the explosion of Gold price.
272 : P/B @1.2 vs industrial avg 2.0+ Boss buy @$5.00 Oct 2009.
2318 : huge growth potential. (Grow at 37%, PEG = 0.34)
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
USD is fading away in the next decade.. Gold hits USD2,000 in 2011
Hot money triple LONG HK markets(FX, Stock, Real Estate)
陶冬's Interesting Views
Central banks is trying to save the economies by massive printing
money with zero interest rate. The supply could be high but
the demand is low. Result :
Govn'ts ----> Banks --X--> Industries ---X----> Consumers
-----> Assest Investment (UP)
-----> Commodities (UP)
China has no intention to let CYN raise, as it hurts the exports and
economies on the whole. However,
When China's internal consuming is UP
Then CYN will be UP fast (Time for a kill) !!
Else ....... China wants stable FX.
Book Review
Can indivdual investors beat well-equiped fund managers ? The
book "Security Analysis" says so :
1. Fund Manager's priority
Fund managers' priority is job safety! it is better to be in the herd
(even to lose money). If it works out, fund manger claims the credit,
it not, it is the markets' fault.
2. Fund' Mandates
Fubd's mandates may work against Fund Managers' will. Including
the maximum weighting for any stock, and the mini/max amount
of cash allowed.
3. Statistical figures
On average, only 15% of fund managers beats the benchmark after
management fees are deduced. Further, winners do not last for
long. In other words, statistic suggests that those super fund mangers
are simply lucky guys of the year. (Guess Peter Lunch and Warren
Buffett are exception!).
Weekly Trading Plan
Raising cheap fund (mortgage) for carry trade.
Double long Hong Kong markets(stock and real estate)
Leverage by using market indexes (=>3X)
Long index and roll-over with gains.
Keep an eye on 劉央's buy list of China Small Cap
Investing Strategy
2009 : panic market -> focus on Beta.
2010 : normal market -> focus on Alpha.
Long H-share, gold and commodity, Short USD/HKD.
Treynor-Black Model (anchor 2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing
Stay away from China over-capacity industries.
Focus
HSI 23,000 -> 5% cash
HSI 24,000 -> 20% cash
Speculate
83 : 信和 for its land reserves. Company buy back
670 : speculate business boom for the coming events in shanghai.
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.
2829 : H-share (Financail Industry)
587 : Est PE = 4.9 Medical for female
1387 : Est PE = 6.9 underground shopping mall
Core Holding
2828 : portfolio benchmark
868 : cyclical commodity. (2009/09/27 Chairman buy at $5.03)
2899, 1818 : embrace the explosion of Gold price.
272 : P/B @1.2 vs industrial avg 2.0+ Boss buy @$5.00 Oct 2009.
2318 : huge growth potential. (Grow at 37%, PEG = 0.34)
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Weekly Trading Strategy : 16-11-2009
Long-term View :
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
USD is fading away in the next decade.. Gold hits USD2,000 in 2011
Hot money triple LONG HK markets(FX, Stock, Real Estate)
China's Ten Bagger decade
Want to beat Warren Buffet's investment records ? Easy !!
- CYN/USD appreciate 100% to 2X with retun 7%
- GDP growth at 8% and stock return 18%
Total return 7%+18% = 25% => 10X in a decade
Beat Warren Buffet's reords of 21% hand down.
Be humble to Peter Lynch.
Weekly Trading Plan
Raising cheap fund (mortgage) for carry trade.
Double long Hong Kong markets(stock and real estate)
Leverage by using market indexes (=>3X)
Long index and roll-over with gains.
Investing Strategy
2009 : panic market -> focus on Beta.
2010 : normal market -> focus on Alpha.
Long H-share, gold and commodity, Short USD/HKD.
Treynor-Black Model (anchor 2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing
Stay away from China over-capacity industries.
Focus
HSI 23,000 -> 5% cash
HSI 24,000 -> 20% cash
Speculate
83 : 信和 for its land reserves. Company buy back
670 : speculate business boom for the coming events in shanghai.
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.
Core Holding
2828 : portfolio benchmark
868 : cyclical commodity. (2009/09/27 Chairman buy at $5.03)
2899, 1818 : embrace the explosion of Gold price.
272 : P/B @1.2 vs industrial avg 2.0+ Boss buy @$5.00 Oct 2009.
2318 : huge growth potential. (Grow at 37%, PEG = 0.34)
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
USD is fading away in the next decade.. Gold hits USD2,000 in 2011
Hot money triple LONG HK markets(FX, Stock, Real Estate)
China's Ten Bagger decade
Want to beat Warren Buffet's investment records ? Easy !!
- CYN/USD appreciate 100% to 2X with retun 7%
- GDP growth at 8% and stock return 18%
Total return 7%+18% = 25% => 10X in a decade
Beat Warren Buffet's reords of 21% hand down.
Be humble to Peter Lynch.
Weekly Trading Plan
Raising cheap fund (mortgage) for carry trade.
Double long Hong Kong markets(stock and real estate)
Leverage by using market indexes (=>3X)
Long index and roll-over with gains.
Investing Strategy
2009 : panic market -> focus on Beta.
2010 : normal market -> focus on Alpha.
Long H-share, gold and commodity, Short USD/HKD.
Treynor-Black Model (anchor 2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing
Stay away from China over-capacity industries.
Focus
HSI 23,000 -> 5% cash
HSI 24,000 -> 20% cash
Speculate
83 : 信和 for its land reserves. Company buy back
670 : speculate business boom for the coming events in shanghai.
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.
Core Holding
2828 : portfolio benchmark
868 : cyclical commodity. (2009/09/27 Chairman buy at $5.03)
2899, 1818 : embrace the explosion of Gold price.
272 : P/B @1.2 vs industrial avg 2.0+ Boss buy @$5.00 Oct 2009.
2318 : huge growth potential. (Grow at 37%, PEG = 0.34)
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Weekly Trading Strategy : 9-11-2009
Long-term View :
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
USD is fading away in the next decade.. Gold hits USD2,000 in 2011
Hot money triple LONG HK markets(FX, Stock, Real Estate)
Weekly Review and Comments
Joseph Stiglitz views on US:
1. Unemployment rate stay high
2. Inventory level goes up means nothing, as the problem is in the demand side !
3. The default rate of US commerical building will be in bad shape.
4. US recovery, what recovery ?
China Economic Outlook 2010 (By HSBC China chief economist)
1. High growth sector shift to Medical and Education (Which stock ?)
2. Stock up 20%-30% ( HSI will hit 30,000)
3. No bubble in Real Estate market (hold on #272)
4. Inflation is moderate
5. CYN appreciates slowly
Stock Review (2318)
1. Switch from product-oriented(Insurance) to customer-oriented. (Y-generation)
2. 360% cross selling (insurance, banking services, invesetment services etc..)
3. interest rate up -> better interest margins.
4. Rapid growth in Banking sector.
Conclusion : BUY for long term (5-yr)
Weekly Trading Plan
LONG
2318中國平安
Investing Strategy
2009 : panic market -> focus on Beta.
2010 : normal market -> focus on Alpha.
Long H-share, gold and commodity, Short USD/HKD.
Treynor-Black Model (anchor 2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing
Stay away from China over-capacity industries.
Focus
HSI 23,000 -> 5% cash
HSI 24,000 -> 20% cash
Speculate
83 : 信和 for its focus on luxury sector and its land reserves. Company buy back
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.
2823 : speculate A-Share rebound Vs H-Share
Core Holding
868 : cyclical commodity for auto industry. (2009/09/27 Chairman buy back at $5.03)
2899, 1818 : embrace the explosion of Gold price in 2010 when inflation comes.
272 : P/B @1.2 vs industrial avg 2.0+ Boss buy 4.6M shares at $5.00 Oct 2009.
2318 : huge growth potential. (Grow at 37%, PEG = 0.34)
SHORT
2837 : Taiwan stock market from China's policy.
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
USD is fading away in the next decade.. Gold hits USD2,000 in 2011
Hot money triple LONG HK markets(FX, Stock, Real Estate)
Weekly Review and Comments
Joseph Stiglitz views on US:
1. Unemployment rate stay high
2. Inventory level goes up means nothing, as the problem is in the demand side !
3. The default rate of US commerical building will be in bad shape.
4. US recovery, what recovery ?
China Economic Outlook 2010 (By HSBC China chief economist)
1. High growth sector shift to Medical and Education (Which stock ?)
2. Stock up 20%-30% ( HSI will hit 30,000)
3. No bubble in Real Estate market (hold on #272)
4. Inflation is moderate
5. CYN appreciates slowly
Stock Review (2318)
1. Switch from product-oriented(Insurance) to customer-oriented. (Y-generation)
2. 360% cross selling (insurance, banking services, invesetment services etc..)
3. interest rate up -> better interest margins.
4. Rapid growth in Banking sector.
Conclusion : BUY for long term (5-yr)
Weekly Trading Plan
LONG
2318中國平安
Investing Strategy
2009 : panic market -> focus on Beta.
2010 : normal market -> focus on Alpha.
Long H-share, gold and commodity, Short USD/HKD.
Treynor-Black Model (anchor 2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing
Stay away from China over-capacity industries.
Focus
HSI 23,000 -> 5% cash
HSI 24,000 -> 20% cash
Speculate
83 : 信和 for its focus on luxury sector and its land reserves. Company buy back
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.
2823 : speculate A-Share rebound Vs H-Share
Core Holding
868 : cyclical commodity for auto industry. (2009/09/27 Chairman buy back at $5.03)
2899, 1818 : embrace the explosion of Gold price in 2010 when inflation comes.
272 : P/B @1.2 vs industrial avg 2.0+ Boss buy 4.6M shares at $5.00 Oct 2009.
2318 : huge growth potential. (Grow at 37%, PEG = 0.34)
SHORT
2837 : Taiwan stock market from China's policy.
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Weekly Trading Strategy : 2-11-2009
Long-term View :
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
USD is fading away in the next 5 year.. Gold hits USD2,000 in 2011
Hot money double long HK market; Hong Kong will be "Londonized" in 3 years time.
Weekly Review and Comments
China export will be up 15%-20% in Q4
China's Economy i s stabilized for steady growth in the coming 3 years. Insurance sector is in good shape as China's income/person is more than USD 3,000 and middle class population grows. Further, China's policy and interest rate trend are favor to Insurance sector.
Weekly Trading Plan
LONG
2831 Russia ETF : Disounct 5%
2318中國平安
SHORT
2837 台灣ETF
Portfolio Strategy
2009 : panic market -> focus on Beta.
2010 : normal market -> focus on Alpha.
Long H-share, gold and commodity, Short USD/HKD.
Treynor-Black Model (anchor 2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing
Stay away over-capacity industry.
Focus
HSI 23,000 -> 5% cash
HSI 24,000 -> 20% cash
Speculate
83 : 信和 for its focus on luxury sector and its land reserves. Company buy back
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.
2823 : speculate A-Share rebound Vs H-Share
Core Holding
868 : cyclical commodity for auto industry. (2009/09/27 Chairman buy back at $5.03)
2899, 1818 :explosion of Gold price in 2010 when inflation comes.
272 : P/B @1.2 vs industrial avg 2.0+ Boss buy 4.6M shares at $5.00 Oct 2009.
2318 : huge growth potential. (Grow at 37%, PEG = 0.34)
SHORT
2837 : Taiwan stock market from China's policy.
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
USD is fading away in the next 5 year.. Gold hits USD2,000 in 2011
Hot money double long HK market; Hong Kong will be "Londonized" in 3 years time.
Weekly Review and Comments
China export will be up 15%-20% in Q4
China's Economy i s stabilized for steady growth in the coming 3 years. Insurance sector is in good shape as China's income/person is more than USD 3,000 and middle class population grows. Further, China's policy and interest rate trend are favor to Insurance sector.
Weekly Trading Plan
LONG
2831 Russia ETF : Disounct 5%
2318中國平安
SHORT
2837 台灣ETF
Portfolio Strategy
2009 : panic market -> focus on Beta.
2010 : normal market -> focus on Alpha.
Long H-share, gold and commodity, Short USD/HKD.
Treynor-Black Model (anchor 2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing
Stay away over-capacity industry.
Focus
HSI 23,000 -> 5% cash
HSI 24,000 -> 20% cash
Speculate
83 : 信和 for its focus on luxury sector and its land reserves. Company buy back
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.
2823 : speculate A-Share rebound Vs H-Share
Core Holding
868 : cyclical commodity for auto industry. (2009/09/27 Chairman buy back at $5.03)
2899, 1818 :explosion of Gold price in 2010 when inflation comes.
272 : P/B @1.2 vs industrial avg 2.0+ Boss buy 4.6M shares at $5.00 Oct 2009.
2318 : huge growth potential. (Grow at 37%, PEG = 0.34)
SHORT
2837 : Taiwan stock market from China's policy.
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