Weekly Trading Strategy : 16-11-2009

Long-term View :
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
USD is fading away in the next decade.. Gold hits USD2,000 in 2011
Hot money triple LONG HK markets(FX, Stock, Real Estate)

China's Ten Bagger decade
Want to beat Warren Buffet's investment records ? Easy !!
- CYN/USD appreciate 100% to 2X with retun 7%
- GDP growth at 8% and stock return 18%
Total return 7%+18% = 25% => 10X in a decade
Beat Warren Buffet's reords of 21% hand down.
Be humble to Peter Lynch.

Weekly Trading Plan
Raising cheap fund (mortgage) for carry trade.
Double long Hong Kong markets(stock and real estate)
Leverage by using market indexes (=>3X)
Long index and roll-over with gains.

Investing Strategy
2009 : panic market -> focus on Beta.
2010 : normal market -> focus on Alpha.
Long H-share, gold and commodity, Short USD/HKD.
Treynor-Black Model (anchor 2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing
Stay away from China over-capacity industries.

Focus
HSI 23,000 -> 5% cash
HSI 24,000 -> 20% cash
Speculate
83 : 信和 for its land reserves. Company buy back
670 : speculate business boom for the coming events in shanghai.
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.
Core Holding
2828 : portfolio benchmark
868 : cyclical commodity. (2009/09/27 Chairman buy at $5.03)
2899, 1818 : embrace the explosion of Gold price.
272 : P/B @1.2 vs industrial avg 2.0+ Boss buy @$5.00 Oct 2009.
2318 : huge growth potential. (Grow at 37%, PEG = 0.34)