Weekly Trading Strategy : 23-11-2009

Long-term View :
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
USD is fading away in the next decade.. Gold hits USD2,000 in 2011
Hot money triple LONG HK markets(FX, Stock, Real Estate)

陶冬's Interesting Views
Central banks is trying to save the economies by massive printing
money with zero interest rate. The supply could be high but
the demand is low. Result :

Govn'ts ----> Banks --X--> Industries ---X----> Consumers
-----> Assest Investment (UP)
-----> Commodities (UP)

China has no intention to let CYN raise, as it hurts the exports and
economies on the whole. However,

When China's internal consuming is UP
Then CYN will be UP fast (Time for a kill) !!
Else ....... China wants stable FX.

Book Review
Can indivdual investors beat well-equiped fund managers ? The
book "Security Analysis" says so :

1. Fund Manager's priority
Fund managers' priority is job safety! it is better to be in the herd
(even to lose money). If it works out, fund manger claims the credit,
it not, it is the markets' fault.

2. Fund' Mandates
Fubd's mandates may work against Fund Managers' will. Including
the maximum weighting for any stock, and the mini/max amount
of cash allowed.

3. Statistical figures
On average, only 15% of fund managers beats the benchmark after
management fees are deduced. Further, winners do not last for
long. In other words, statistic suggests that those super fund mangers
are simply lucky guys of the year. (Guess Peter Lunch and Warren
Buffett are exception!).

Weekly Trading Plan
Raising cheap fund (mortgage) for carry trade.
Double long Hong Kong markets(stock and real estate)
Leverage by using market indexes (=>3X)
Long index and roll-over with gains.
Keep an eye on 劉央's buy list of China Small Cap

Investing Strategy
2009 : panic market -> focus on Beta.
2010 : normal market -> focus on Alpha.
Long H-share, gold and commodity, Short USD/HKD.
Treynor-Black Model (anchor 2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing
Stay away from China over-capacity industries.

Focus
HSI 23,000 -> 5% cash
HSI 24,000 -> 20% cash
Speculate
83 : 信和 for its land reserves. Company buy back
670 : speculate business boom for the coming events in shanghai.
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.

2829 : H-share (Financail Industry)
587 : Est PE = 4.9 Medical for female
1387 : Est PE = 6.9 underground shopping mall
Core Holding
2828 : portfolio benchmark
868 : cyclical commodity. (2009/09/27 Chairman buy at $5.03)
2899, 1818 : embrace the explosion of Gold price.
272 : P/B @1.2 vs industrial avg 2.0+ Boss buy @$5.00 Oct 2009.
2318 : huge growth potential. (Grow at 37%, PEG = 0.34)