2009 Investment Review

2009 is a good year and the return breakdown as follows

Asset Allocation 52%
Stock Selection 102%
Total Return 154%

the focus on large beta stocks payout
the best stock pick : 2899 (Gold rush)
the dispointed miss : portfolio re-balance could enhance another 30% return

cheers...

Weekly Trading Strategy : 28-12-2009

Short 2828 : 300K
Long HSCE : 1 lot < 127,400
Long 0083: 10K shares < 14.70
Prepare Industry focus list

Long :

周生生

(上市公司 HKG:0116)

匹克體育

(上市公司 HKG:1968)

Weekly Trading Strategy : 21-12-2009

Weekly Trading Plan
Re-balance the portfolio for 2010
Leverage by using market indexes (=>3X)
Long index and roll-over with gains.
Prepare Industry focus list

Long :

周生生

(上市公司 HKG:0116)

匹克體育

(上市公司 HKG:1968)

Weekly Trading Strategy : 7-12-2009

Weekly Trading Plan
Leverage by using market indexes (=>3X)
Long index and roll-over with gains.

Weekly Trading Strategy : 29-11-2009

Weekly Trading Plan
Leverage by using market indexes (=>3X)
Long index and roll-over with gains.
Keep an eye on 劉央's buy list of China Small Cap

Weekly Trading Strategy : 23-11-2009

Long-term View :
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
USD is fading away in the next decade.. Gold hits USD2,000 in 2011
Hot money triple LONG HK markets(FX, Stock, Real Estate)

陶冬's Interesting Views
Central banks is trying to save the economies by massive printing
money with zero interest rate. The supply could be high but
the demand is low. Result :

Govn'ts ----> Banks --X--> Industries ---X----> Consumers
-----> Assest Investment (UP)
-----> Commodities (UP)

China has no intention to let CYN raise, as it hurts the exports and
economies on the whole. However,

When China's internal consuming is UP
Then CYN will be UP fast (Time for a kill) !!
Else ....... China wants stable FX.

Book Review
Can indivdual investors beat well-equiped fund managers ? The
book "Security Analysis" says so :

1. Fund Manager's priority
Fund managers' priority is job safety! it is better to be in the herd
(even to lose money). If it works out, fund manger claims the credit,
it not, it is the markets' fault.

2. Fund' Mandates
Fubd's mandates may work against Fund Managers' will. Including
the maximum weighting for any stock, and the mini/max amount
of cash allowed.

3. Statistical figures
On average, only 15% of fund managers beats the benchmark after
management fees are deduced. Further, winners do not last for
long. In other words, statistic suggests that those super fund mangers
are simply lucky guys of the year. (Guess Peter Lunch and Warren
Buffett are exception!).

Weekly Trading Plan
Raising cheap fund (mortgage) for carry trade.
Double long Hong Kong markets(stock and real estate)
Leverage by using market indexes (=>3X)
Long index and roll-over with gains.
Keep an eye on 劉央's buy list of China Small Cap

Investing Strategy
2009 : panic market -> focus on Beta.
2010 : normal market -> focus on Alpha.
Long H-share, gold and commodity, Short USD/HKD.
Treynor-Black Model (anchor 2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing
Stay away from China over-capacity industries.

Focus
HSI 23,000 -> 5% cash
HSI 24,000 -> 20% cash
Speculate
83 : 信和 for its land reserves. Company buy back
670 : speculate business boom for the coming events in shanghai.
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.

2829 : H-share (Financail Industry)
587 : Est PE = 4.9 Medical for female
1387 : Est PE = 6.9 underground shopping mall
Core Holding
2828 : portfolio benchmark
868 : cyclical commodity. (2009/09/27 Chairman buy at $5.03)
2899, 1818 : embrace the explosion of Gold price.
272 : P/B @1.2 vs industrial avg 2.0+ Boss buy @$5.00 Oct 2009.
2318 : huge growth potential. (Grow at 37%, PEG = 0.34)

Weekly Trading Strategy : 16-11-2009

Long-term View :
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
USD is fading away in the next decade.. Gold hits USD2,000 in 2011
Hot money triple LONG HK markets(FX, Stock, Real Estate)

China's Ten Bagger decade
Want to beat Warren Buffet's investment records ? Easy !!
- CYN/USD appreciate 100% to 2X with retun 7%
- GDP growth at 8% and stock return 18%
Total return 7%+18% = 25% => 10X in a decade
Beat Warren Buffet's reords of 21% hand down.
Be humble to Peter Lynch.

Weekly Trading Plan
Raising cheap fund (mortgage) for carry trade.
Double long Hong Kong markets(stock and real estate)
Leverage by using market indexes (=>3X)
Long index and roll-over with gains.

Investing Strategy
2009 : panic market -> focus on Beta.
2010 : normal market -> focus on Alpha.
Long H-share, gold and commodity, Short USD/HKD.
Treynor-Black Model (anchor 2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing
Stay away from China over-capacity industries.

Focus
HSI 23,000 -> 5% cash
HSI 24,000 -> 20% cash
Speculate
83 : 信和 for its land reserves. Company buy back
670 : speculate business boom for the coming events in shanghai.
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.
Core Holding
2828 : portfolio benchmark
868 : cyclical commodity. (2009/09/27 Chairman buy at $5.03)
2899, 1818 : embrace the explosion of Gold price.
272 : P/B @1.2 vs industrial avg 2.0+ Boss buy @$5.00 Oct 2009.
2318 : huge growth potential. (Grow at 37%, PEG = 0.34)

Weekly Trading Strategy : 9-11-2009

Long-term View :
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
USD is fading away in the next decade.. Gold hits USD2,000 in 2011
Hot money triple LONG HK markets(FX, Stock, Real Estate)

Weekly Review and Comments
Joseph Stiglitz views on US:
1. Unemployment rate stay high
2. Inventory level goes up means nothing, as the problem is in the demand side !
3. The default rate of US commerical building will be in bad shape.
4. US recovery, what recovery ?

China Economic Outlook 2010 (By HSBC China chief economist)
1. High growth sector shift to Medical and Education (Which stock ?)
2. Stock up 20%-30% ( HSI will hit 30,000)
3. No bubble in Real Estate market (hold on #272)
4. Inflation is moderate
5. CYN appreciates slowly

Stock Review (2318)
1. Switch from product-oriented(Insurance) to customer-oriented. (Y-generation)
2. 360% cross selling (insurance, banking services, invesetment services etc..)
3. interest rate up -> better interest margins.
4. Rapid growth in Banking sector.
Conclusion : BUY for long term (5-yr)

Weekly Trading Plan
LONG
2318中國平安

Investing Strategy
2009 : panic market -> focus on Beta.
2010 : normal market -> focus on Alpha.
Long H-share, gold and commodity, Short USD/HKD.
Treynor-Black Model (anchor 2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing
Stay away from China over-capacity industries.

Focus
HSI 23,000 -> 5% cash
HSI 24,000 -> 20% cash
Speculate
83 : 信和 for its focus on luxury sector and its land reserves. Company buy back
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.
2823 : speculate A-Share rebound Vs H-Share
Core Holding
868 : cyclical commodity for auto industry. (2009/09/27 Chairman buy back at $5.03)
2899, 1818 : embrace the explosion of Gold price in 2010 when inflation comes.
272 : P/B @1.2 vs industrial avg 2.0+ Boss buy 4.6M shares at $5.00 Oct 2009.
2318 : huge growth potential. (Grow at 37%, PEG = 0.34)
SHORT
2837 : Taiwan stock market from China's policy.

Weekly Trading Strategy : 2-11-2009

Long-term View :
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
USD is fading away in the next 5 year.. Gold hits USD2,000 in 2011
Hot money double long HK market; Hong Kong will be "Londonized" in 3 years time.

Weekly Review and Comments
China export will be up 15%-20% in Q4
China's Economy i s stabilized for steady growth in the coming 3 years. Insurance sector is in good shape as China's income/person is more than USD 3,000 and middle class population grows. Further, China's policy and interest rate trend are favor to Insurance sector.

Weekly Trading Plan
LONG
2831 Russia ETF : Disounct 5%
2318中國平安
SHORT
2837 台灣ETF

Portfolio Strategy
2009 : panic market -> focus on Beta.
2010 : normal market -> focus on Alpha.
Long H-share, gold and commodity, Short USD/HKD.
Treynor-Black Model (anchor 2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing
Stay away over-capacity industry.

Focus
HSI 23,000 -> 5% cash
HSI 24,000 -> 20% cash
Speculate
83 : 信和 for its focus on luxury sector and its land reserves. Company buy back
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.
2823 : speculate A-Share rebound Vs H-Share
Core Holding
868 : cyclical commodity for auto industry. (2009/09/27 Chairman buy back at $5.03)
2899, 1818 :explosion of Gold price in 2010 when inflation comes.
272 : P/B @1.2 vs industrial avg 2.0+ Boss buy 4.6M shares at $5.00 Oct 2009.
2318 : huge growth potential. (Grow at 37%, PEG = 0.34)
SHORT
2837 : Taiwan stock market from China's policy.

Weekly Trading Strategy : 27-10-2009

View :
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
The world floods with money from US, Eur, China. => Hot money double long HK market;
China's hot money starts pouring it. very bullish to HK Real Estate market short term.
Expectation (Deflation -> Inflation) : Gold hits USD2,000 in 2011
USD is fading away : USD is long way down !
Hong Kong will be "Londonized" in 3 years time.

New
Labor force of China is up again => Export UP => Import UP => (Shipping)

Investment Focus
Item Asset Time (mth)
1 Shipping (6m)
2 Real Estate (6m)
3 Gold (60m)
4 China (60m)
5 Insurance (24m)
* Airline (3m)

Strategy
2009 : panic market -> focus on Beta.
2010 : normal market -> focus on Alpha.
Long H-share, gold and commodity, Short USD/HKD.
Speculate hot money target. Hong Kong real estate market.
Treynor-Black Model (anchor 2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing
Avoid over-capacity industry.

Trade Strategy
Hold : For year 2009
HSI 23,000 -> 5% cash
HSI 24,000 -> 20% cash

Focus
83 : 信和 for its luxury apartment and its land reserves. Hong Kong will be "Londonized"
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.
868 : cyclical commodity for auto industry. (2009/09/27 Chairman buy back at $5.03)
2899, 1818 :explosion of Gold price in 2010 when inflation comes.
272 : P/B @1.2 vs industrial avg 2.0+
2318 : huge growth potential. (Grow at 37%)
2837 : Taiwan stock market from China's policy.
2828 : As anchor of the portfolio
2823 : speculate for rebound

Weekly Trading Strategy : 19-10-2009

View :
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
The world floods with money from US, Eur, China.
Hot money double long HK market;
China's hot money starts pouring it. very bullish to HK Real Estate market short term.
Expectation (Deflation -> Inflation) : Gold hits USD2,000 in 2011
China & Russia trade with their currency: No more USD : USD is long way down !
Hong Kong will be "Londonized" in 3 years time.

Risk
Import/Export Re-balance
China has no trade surplus
=> China does buy US Treasury Bill
=> US Interest Rate ^
=> Asset Price Down

Strategy
2009 : panic market -> focus on Beta.
2010 : normal market -> focus on Alpha.
Long H-share, gold and commodity, Short USD/HKD.
Speculate hot money target. Hong Kong real estate market.
Treynor-Black Model (anchor 2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing
Avoid over-capacity industry.

Trade Strategy
Hold : For year 2009
HSI 23,000 -> 5% cash
HSI 24,000 -> 20% cash
Over weight 信和

Focus
83 : 信和 for its luxury apartment and its land reserves. Hong Kong will be "Londonized"
868 :commodity for auto industry (Industry over capacity).
2009/09/27 Chairman buy back at $5.03
2899, 1818 :explosion of Gold price in 2010 when inflation comes.
272 : P/B @1.2 vs industrial avg 2.0+
2318 : huge growth potential.
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.
2837 : Taiwan stock market from China's policy.

Weekly Trading Strategy : 12-10-2009

View :
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
The world floods with money from US, Eur, China.
Hot money double long HK market;
China's hot money starts pouring it. very bullish to HK Real Estate market short term.
Expectation (Deflation -> Inflation) : Gold hits USD2,000 in 2011

Risk
Import/Export Re-balance
China has no trade surplus
=> China does buy US Treasury Bill
=> US Interest Rate ^
=> Asset Price Down

Strategy
2009 : panic market -> focus on Beta.
2010 : normal market -> focus on Alpha.
Long H-share, gold and commodity, Short USD/HKD.
Speculate hot money target. Hong Kong real estate market.
Treynor-Black Model (anchor 2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing
Avoid over-capacity industry.

Trade Strategy
Hold : For year 2009
HSI 23,000 -> 5% cash
HSI 24,000 -> 20% cash

Focus
83 : 信和 for its focus on luxury apartment and its land reserves.
868 :commodity for auto industry (Industry over capacity).
2009/09/27 Chairman buy back at $5.03
2899, 1818 :explosion of Gold price in 2010 when inflation comes.
272 : P/B @1.2 vs industrial avg 2.0+
2318 : huge growth potential.
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.
2837 : Taiwan stock market from China's policy.

Weekly Trading Strategy : 05-10-2009

View :
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
The world floods with money from US, Eur, China.
Hot money double long HK market;
China's hot money starts pouring it. very bullish to HK Real Estate market short term.
Expectation (Deflation -> Inflation) : Gold hits USD2,000 in 2011

Risk
Import/Export Re-balance
China has no trade surplus
=> China does buy US Treasury Bill
=> US Interest Rate ^
=> Asset Price Down

Strategy
2009 : panic market -> focus on Beta.
2010 : normal market -> focus on Alpha.
Long H-share, gold and commodity, Short USD/HKD.
Speculate hot money target. Hong Kong real estate market.
Treynor-Black Model (anchor 2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing
Avoid over-capacity industry.

Trade Strategy
Hold

Focus
83 : 信和 for its focus on luxury apartment and its land reserves.
868 :commodity for auto industry (Industry over capacity).
2009/09/27 Chairman buy back at $5.03
2899, 1818 :explosion of Gold price in 2010 when inflation comes.
272 : P/B @1.2 vs industrial avg 2.0+
2318 : huge growth potential.
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.
2837 : Taiwan stock market from China's policy.

Weekly Trading Strategy : 28- 09-2009

view :
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
US floods with money, China follows, so is the world !
Hot money double long HK market;
China's hot money starts pouring it. very bullish to HK asset market.
Expectation (Deflation -> Inflation) : Gold hits USD2,000 in 2011

Strategy
2009 : panic market -> focus on Beta.
2010 : normal market -> focus on Alpha.
Long H-share, gold and commodity, Short USD/HKD.
Speculate hot money target. Hong Kong real estate market.
Treynor-Black Model (anchor 2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing

Trade Strategy
LONG 670 東航 speculate 2010 Expo

Focus
83 : 信和 for its focus on luxury apartment and its land reserves.
868 :commodity for auto industry.
2009/09/27 Chairman buy back at $5.03
2899, 1818 :explosion of Gold price in 2010 when inflation comes.
272 : P/B @1.2 vs industrial avg 2.0+
2318 : huge growth potential.
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.
2837 : Taiwan stock market from China's policy.

Weekly Trading Strategy : 21- 09-2009

View :
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
US floods with money, China follows, so is the world !
Hot money double long HK market;
China's hot money starts pouring it. very bullish to HK asset market.
Expectation (Deflation -> Inflation) : Gold hits USD2,000 in 2011

Strategy
2009 : panic market -> focus on Beta.
2010 : normal market -> focus on Alpha.
Long H-share, gold and commodity, Short USD/HKD.
Speculate hot money target. Hong Kong real estate market.
Treynor-Black Model (anchor 2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing

Trade Strategy
LONG 670 東航 speculate 2010 Expo
LONG 83 信和 for its focus on luxury apartment and its land reserves.
SWAP 2899 -> 1818, 2837

Focus
868 :commodity for auto industry.
2899, 1818 :explosion of Gold price in 2010 when inflation comes.
272 : appreciation of real estate.
2318 : huge growth potential.
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.
2837 : Taiwan stock market from China's policy.

Weekly Trading Strategy : 14- 09-2009

View :
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
US floods with money, China follows so is the world !
Hot money double long HK market; Very bullish to Market.
Expectation Deflation -> Inflation Gold hits USD 1,300 in 2009 and USD2,000 in 24 months

Strategy
Long H-share, gold and commodity, Short USD/HKD.
Treynor-Black Model (2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing

Trade Strategy
LONG 670 東航 speculate 2010 Expo
SWAP 2899 -> 1818, 2837
SHORT 3968

Focus
868 :commodity for auto industry.
2899 :explosion of Gold price in 2010 when inflation comes.
272 : appreciation of real estate.
2318 : huge growth potential.
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.
3968 : high growth bank in retail finance market.
2837 : Taiwan stock market from China's policy.

View :
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
US floods with money, China follows so is the world !
Hot money double long HK market
Market is optimistic. Expectation Deflation -> Inflation

Strategy
Long H-share and commodity sector, Short USD/HKD.
Treynor-Black Model (2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing

Trade Strategy
SWAP 2828 -> 2823 Mean Reversion
LONG 670 東航 speculate 2010 Expo
Streamline Philips Accounts stock for re-balancing.
SWAP 2899 -> 1818

Focus
868 :commodity for auto industry.
2899 :explosion of Gold price in 2010 when inflation comes.
272 : appreciation of real estate.
2318 : huge growth potential.
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.
3968 : high growth bank in retail finance market.
2837 : Taiwan stock market from China's policy.

2009 : Money Game year

View :
Bullish with HSI target 24,000 in 2009
US flood with money, and China follows
Hot money double long HK market

Strategy
Long H-share and commodity sector, Short USD/HKD.
Treynor-Black Model (2828 : ETF H-share) with portfolio monthly balancing
HKD term-structure, short short-term HKD and long long-term HKD

Focus
868 :commodity for auto industry.
2899 :explosion of Gold price in 2010 when inflation comes.
272 : appreciation of real estate.
2318 : huge growth potential.
2343 : cyclical stock - steady for recovery in 2010.
3968 : high growth bank in retail finance market.
2837 : Taiwan stock market from China's policy.